Persistence of non-Markovian Gaussian stationary processes in discrete time
Markus Nyberg and Ludvig Lizana
Phys. Rev. E 97, 040101(R) (2018) - Published 12 April, 2018
The persistence of a stochastic variable is the probability that it does not cross a given level during a fixed time interval. Although persistence is a simple concept to understand, it is in general hard to calculate. Here we consider zero mean Gaussian stationary processes in discrete time . Few results are known for the persistence in discrete time, except the large time behavior which is characterized by the nontrivial constant through . Using a modified version of the independent interval approximation (IIA) that we developed before, we are able to calculate analytically in -transform space in terms of the autocorrelation function . If as , we extract numerically, while if , for finite , we find exactly (within the IIA). We apply our results to three special cases: the nearest-neighbor-correlated “first order moving average process”, where for , the double exponential-correlated “second order autoregressive process”, where , and power-law-correlated variables, where . Apart from the power-law case when , we find excellent agreement with simulations.

