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    Predicting cover-time distribution of noncompact random walks

    Jia-Qi Dong1,*, Chang Liu2, Wen-Hui Han1,3, and Liang Huang1,†

    • 1Lanzhou Center for Theoretical Physics, Key Laboratory of Theoretical Physics of Gansu Province, KeyLaboratory of Quantum Theoryand Applications of MoE, Gansu Provincial Research Center for Basic Disciplines of Quantum Physics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
    • 2Lanzhou Center for Theoretical Physics, Key Laboratory of Theoretical Physics of Gansu Province, KeyLaboratory of Quantum Theoryand Applications of MoE, Gansu Provincial Research Center for Basic Disciplines of Quantum Physics, School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
    • 3Laboratoire de Chimie, Ecole Normale Supérieure de Lyon, CNRS, UMR 5182, 46, Allée d'Italie, 69364 Lyon Cedex 07, France

    • *Contact author: Contact author: dongjq@lzu.edu.cn
    • †Contact author: Contact author: huangl@lzu.edu.cn

    Phys. Rev. E 112, 054312 – Published 13 November, 2025

    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1103/cpf3-hfrz

    Abstract

    The cover-time problem is fundamental to the exhaustive exploration of a given complex domain. Deriving the cover-time distribution from the structural properties of a system remains a significant challenge, yet it is of great value across various social, natural, and engineering applications. In this paper, we propose a scheme to analytically estimate the original cover-time distribution. The approach is based on the recent discovery of the universal cover-time distribution after rescaling the original cover times by the first-passage times. Here, we find that the first-passage time of each node can be effectively approximated by the inverse of the occupation ratio, i.e., the probability that a walker visits this node, which is proportional to the number of its links, multiplied by a fitting constant. With this, conversely, the original cover-time distribution can be obtained from the universal scaled cover-time distribution. We have examined this theoretical prediction of the original cover-time distribution of random walks in several model and realistic network systems, and show excellent agreement with the numerical simulations. Furthermore, for random walk on Erdős-Rényi graph, we analyze the effectiveness of this mean-field approximation and derive a validity bound indicating that when the network is too sparse the approximation may fail. These findings may provide an analytical tool for analyzing exhaustive random exploration in complex domains.

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