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Accounting for the known unknowns: A parametric framework to incorporate systematic waveform errors in gravitational-wave parameter estimation

Sumit Kumar1,2,3,4,*, Max Melching1,2,†, and Frank Ohme1,2,‡

  • *Contact author: sumit.kumar@aei.mpg.de
  • †Contact author: max.melching@aei.mpg.de
  • ‡Contact author: frank.ohme@aei.mpg.de
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Phys. Rev. D 112, 104071 – Published 24 November, 2025

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1103/nkq9-zh2y

Abstract

The parameter estimation (PE) for gravitational wave (GW) merger events relies on a waveform model calibrated using numerical simulations. Within the Bayesian framework, this waveform model represents the GW signal produced during the merger and is crucial for estimating the likelihood function. However, these waveform models may possess systematic errors that can differ across the parameter space. Addressing these errors in the current data analysis pipeline is an active area of research. We introduce parametrizations for the uncertainties in the amplitude and phase of the reference waveform model. When the error budget in the amplitude and phase of the waveform model, as a function of frequency, is known, it can be used as a prior distribution in the Bayesian framework. We also show that conservative priors can be used to quantify uncertainties in waveform modeling without any knowledge of waveform uncertainty error budgets. Through zero-noise injections and PE recoveries, we demonstrate that even 1%–2% of errors in relative phase to the actual waveform model, for a GW150914-like signal and advanced LIGO detector sensitivity, can introduce biases in the recovered parameters. These biases can be corrected when we account for waveform uncertainties within the PE framework. By analyzing a series of simulated signals from mergers with precessing orbits and recovering them using a nonspinning waveform model, we demonstrate that we can reduce the ratio of systematic errors to statistical errors. This approach allows us to address scenarios where specific physical effects are missing in waveform modeling. The code that implements our parametrization for performing PE is available as a Python package “pycbc_wferrors_plugin”, compatible with the PyCBC open source GW analysis library.

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Phys. Rev. D 112, 104071– Published 24 November, 2025
  • Received 6 March 2025
  • Accepted 31 October 2025
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