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  • Letter
  • Open Access

Accurate pulsar timing array residual variances and correlation of the stochastic gravitational-wave background

Reginald Christian Bernardo1,2,* and Kin-Wang Ng3,4,†

  • *Contact author: reginald.christian.bernardo@aei.mpg.de
  • †Contact author: nkw@phys.sinica.edu.tw
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Phys. Rev. D 113, L021501 – Published 2 January, 2026

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1103/8cvw-fwx9

Abstract

Pulsar timing arrays have reported a compelling evidence of a nanohertz stochastic gravitational wave background. However, the origin of the signal remains undetermined, largely because its spectrum is bluer for an astrophysical source and can be explained by cosmological models. In this letter, we revisit the frequency- and Fourier-domain analysis of the signal by deriving theoretically accurate expressions for the Fourier bin variances and correlation of pulsar timing residuals, and demonstrate their outstanding agreement with point source astrophysical simulations. In contrast, we show that a common power law (or a diagonal covariance approximation) traditionally used to interpret a stochastic gravitational wave background signal is generally faced with systematic errors, one of which is the illusion of a bluer signal. This hints at a conservative solution, supportive of an astrophysical source, to the observed correlated common spectrum process in pulsar timing arrays.

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Phys. Rev. D 113, L021501– Published 2 January, 2026
  • Received 10 September 2024
  • Revised 17 November 2025
  • Accepted 10 December 2025
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