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Non-Gaussian stochastic dynamical model for the El Niño southern oscillation

L. T. Giorgini1,*, W. Moon2,1,†, N. Chen3,‡, and J. S. Wettlaufer4,1,§

  • 1Nordita, Royal Institute of Technology and Stockholm University, Stockholm 106 91, Sweden
  • 2Department of Mathematics, Stockholm University 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
  • 3Department of Mathematics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin 53706, USA
  • 4Departments of Earth & Planetary Sciences, Mathematics and Physics, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut 06520, USA

  • *ludovico.giorgini@su.se
  • †woosok.moon@su.se
  • ‡chennan@math.wisc.edu
  • §john.wettlaufer@yale.edu

KGMM: A K-means clustering approach to Gaussian mixture modeling for score function estimation

Ludovico T. Giorgini, Tobias Bischoff, and Andre N. Souza

Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena 495 135274 (2026)

Score-based modeling of effective Langevin dynamics

Ludovico Theo Giorgini

Phys. Rev. E 114 L012102 (2026)

Integrating score-based generative modeling and neural ODEs for accurate representation of multiscale chaotic dynamics

Giulio Del Felice and Ludovico Theo Giorgini

Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science 36 063143 (2026)

Time-lagged recurrence: A data-driven method to estimate the predictability of dynamical systems

Chenyu Dong, Davide Faranda, Adriano Gualandi, Valerio Lucarini, and Gianmarco Mengaldo

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 122 e2420252122 (2025)

Predicting forced responses of probability distributions via the fluctuation–dissipation theorem and generative modeling

Ludovico T. Giorgini, Fabrizio Falasca, and Andre N. Souza

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 122 e2509578122 (2025)

Learning dissipation and instability fields from chaotic dynamics

Ludovico T. Giorgini, Andre N. Souza, Domenico Lippolis, Predrag Cvitanović, and Peter Schmid

Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena 481 134865 (2025)

El Niño and droughts in Southeast Asia: A stochastic-chaotic modeling approach

Davide Faranda, Yuzuru Sato, Chenyu Dong, Adriano Gualandi, Robin Noyelle, Tommaso Alberti, Berengere Dubrulle, Lucas Fery, Gabriele Messori, Mathieu Vrac, Pradeebane Vaittinada Ayar, Pascal Yiou, and Gianmarco Mengaldo

Phys. Rev. E 111 064209 (2025)

Influence of eolian farms on climate dynamics: A simple model point of view

Christophe Letellier, Manyu Zhao, and Pierre Bénard

Chaos, Solitons & Fractals 199 116883 (2025)

Reduced Markovian models of dynamical systems

Ludovico Theo Giorgini, Andre N. Souza, and Peter J. Schmid

Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena 470 134393 (2024)

Analytical Survival Analysis of the Non-autonomous Ornstein–Uhlenbeck Process

L. T. Giorgini, W. Moon, and J. S. Wettlaufer

J Stat Phys 191 138 (2024)

Rigorous derivation of stochastic conceptual models for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation from a spatially-extended dynamical system

Nan Chen and Yinling Zhang

Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena 453 133842 (2023)

Global Asymmetries in the Influence of ENSO on Flood Risk Based on 1,600 Years of Hybrid Simulations

L. Del Rio Amador, M. Boudreault, and D. A. Carozza

Geophysical Research Letters 50 e2022GL102027 (2023)

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