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  • Letter
  • Open Access

Coupled calibration-control method for complex systems

Virgile Troude1, Sandro Claudio Lera1,2,3,*, and Didier Sornette1,†

  • 1Institute of Risk Analysis, Prediction and Management (Risks-X), Academy for Advanced Interdisciplinary Sciences, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen 518055, China
  • 2College of Business, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen 518055, China
  • 3Connection Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139, USA

  • *Contact author: leras@sustech.edu.cn
  • †Contact author: dsornette@ethz.ch
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Phys. Rev. Research 6, L022063 – Published 17 June, 2024

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevResearch.6.L022063

Abstract

We formulate the calibration-control dilemma which occurs in most interesting out-of-equilibrium dynamical systems in the natural and social sciences. Despite a lack of knowledge of the main control parameters, standard control methodology assumes that calibration can determine them. They are, however, obfuscated by the existence of control, leading to large undesired intermittent bursts, crises, and instabilities. By merging parameter calibration and control in a data assimilation framework, our joint calibration-control method nearly matches the performance achieved with complete knowledge of the system parameters, as demonstrated by both analytical and numerical simulations. This paves the way toward more versatile control of complex systems.

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Phys. Rev. Research 6, L022063– Published 17 June, 2024
  • Received 22 October 2023
  • Revised 23 February 2024
  • Accepted 8 May 2024
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