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    Fast decisions reflect biases; slow decisions do not

    Samantha Linn1,*, Sean D. Lawley1,†, Bhargav R. Karamched2,3,4,‡, Zachary P. Kilpatrick5,§, and Krešimir Josić6,7,∥

    • *Contact author: samantha.linn@utah.edu
    • †Contact author: lawley@math.utah.edu
    • ‡Contact author: bkaramched@fsu.edu
    • §Contact author: zpkilpat@colorado.edu
    • ∥Contact author: kresimir.josic@gmail.com

    Phys. Rev. E 110, 024305 – Published 12 August, 2024

    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.110.024305

    Abstract

    Decisions are often made by heterogeneous groups of individuals, each with distinct initial biases and access to information of different quality. We show that in groups of independent agents who accumulate evidence the first to decide are those with the strongest initial biases. Their decisions align with their initial bias, regardless of the underlying truth. In contrast, agents who decide last make decisions as if they were initially unbiased and hence make better choices. We obtain asymptotic expressions in the large population limit quantifying how agents' initial inclinations shape early decisions. Our analysis shows how bias, information quality, and decision order interact in nontrivial ways to determine the reliability of decisions in a group.

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