• Accepted Paper

Unraveling the complex evolution of epistasis in the SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein

Mengqi Jia, Kaicheng Zhu, Shihong Chen, and Haibin Su

Phys. Rev. E - Accepted 10 November, 2026

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1103/zff5-ldcy

Abstract

The adaptive evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein represents a dynamic trajectory through high-dimensional sequence space, where viral fitness is constrained by epistatic couplings across structural domains. While single-site substitutions are well-characterized, the collective dynamics and long-range interactions between non-adjacent amino acid residues remain difficult to map. Analyzing time-resolved evolutionary trajectories from over 15 million viral sequences, we introduce a punctuated tensor decomposed pair clustering method (PunTeD PCM) to extract nonlocal residue couplings. We identify connected co-mutation networks spanning disparate functional domains and show that residue coevolution exhibits punctuated, non-equilibrium dynamics synchronized with major variant sweeps. Mapping these epistatic networks onto adaptive sequence landscapes quantifies how long-range epistatic interactions shape viral fitness, establishing a statistical-physics framework for modeling evolutionary dynamics in complex biological systems.

Export citation

Export citation

Choose format for download:

Download Citation

If the author has provided any supplemental materials with this article they will be available upon publication of the version of record.

Sign In to Your Journals Account

Filter

Filter

Article Lookup

Enter a citation