- Accepted Paper
Canonical phase-space formulation of epidemic dynamics
Phys. Rev. E - Accepted 29 September, 2026
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1103/j9js-ymyv
Phys. Rev. E - Accepted 29 September, 2026
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1103/j9js-ymyv
We develop a phase-space formulation of epidemic dynamics based on the two most directly accessible epidemic observables: the proportion of newly confirmed cases and its accumulation . Expressing the SIS and SIR dynamics entirely through these two quantities, we show that and the normalized growth rate emerge naturally as canonical conjugate variables, with acting as a generalized coordinate and as its conjugate momentum with effective mass . Epidemic trajectories then evolve along constant-Hamiltonian contours, in direct analogy with energy-conserving orbits in classical mechanics. This geometric structure yields a concrete result: the inequality arises as a structural constraint imposed by discrete-time reporting, not as a dynamical threshold. Analysis of COVID-19 and H1N1 data confirms this interpretation — COVID-19 spreads near the boundary of this inequality, explaining the large discrepancies observed in early estimates, while H1N1 lies well within it. This framework makes the full apparatus of Hamiltonian mechanics directly available for the analysis of infectious disease dynamics, and this canonical correspondence opens a systematic, model-independent route to applying classical mechanics tools to epidemic data analysis.
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