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    Modeling postdisturbance empirical patterns in a forest ecosystem

    Davide Zanchetta1,*, Amos Maritan1,2,3, and Sandro Azaele2,3

    • 1Laboratory of Interdisciplinary Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy “G. Galilei”, University of Padova, Padova, Italy
    • 2INFN, Sezione di Padova, via Marzolo 8, 35131 Padova, Italy
    • 3National Biodiversity Future Center, Piazza Marina 61, 90133 Palermo, Italy

    • *Contact author: davide.zanchetta@phd.unipd.it

    Phys. Rev. E 112, 044408 – Published 16 October, 2025

    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1103/yb33-f24m

    Abstract

    We investigate the impact of disturbances on forest ecosystems by examining transient population dynamics in a controlled experiment carried out in a tropical rainforest. We first model the mean species abundance with a simple consumer-resource model, which is then extended into two multispecies frameworks for community dynamics: a neutral model, which emphasises the ability of any species to recover independently of the others; and a non-neutral one, where species interactions play an important role in reconstructing ecosystem's structure and patterns. The results indicate that, while both frameworks accurately describe correlation functions and mean-variance relations, the non-neutral model more effectively captures community structure as revealed by an evenness indicator. This suggests that interspecific interactions significantly influence the ecosystem's ability to respond to disturbances, providing deeper insights into the recovery dynamics of forest ecosystems.

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