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History state formalism for time series with application to finance

F. Lomoc1, N. Canosa1, A. P. Boette1, and R. Rossignoli1,2

Phys. Rev. E 114, 045303 – Published 8 October, 2026

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1103/xygw-mhp6

Abstract

We present a method for analyzing general time series by employing the history state formalism of quantum mechanics. This formalism allows us to describe a complete evolution based on a single quantum state, the history state, which simultaneously includes—also as a quantum system—the reference clock. It naturally leads to the concept of system-time entanglement, with the ensuing entanglement entropy constituting a measure of the effective number of distinguishable states visited in the history. Through a quantum coherent state embedding of the time series data, it is then possible to associate a quantum history state to the series. The Gaussian overlap between these coherent states provides thus a smooth measure of distinguishability between the series data. The eigenvalues of the corresponding overlap matrix determine, in fact, the entanglement spectrum and entropy of the history state, which provide a rigorous characterization of the evolution. As illustration, the formalism is applied to typical financial time-series data. Through the entanglement entropy and spectrum, different evolution regimes can be identified. Entanglement-based volatility indicators are also derived, and compared with standard volatility measures.

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