Stressed under a constant load, materials creep with a final acceleration of deformation and for any given applied stress and material, the creep failure time can strongly vary. We investigate creep on sheets of paper and confront the statistics with a simple fiber bundle model of creep failure in a disordered landscape. In the experiments, acoustic emission event times $t_j$ were recorded, and both this data and simulation event series reveal sample-dependent history effects with log-normal statistics and non-Markovian behavior. This leads to a relationship between $t_j$ and the failure time $t_f$ with a power law relationship, evolving with time. These effects and the predictability result from how the energy gap distribution develops during creep.

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• Creep
• Fracture
• Material failure
• Mechanical & acoustical properties
• Disordered systems
• Acoustic techniques
• Mechanical testing
• Monte Carlo methods
• Non-Markovian processes
• Tension tests
• Time series analysis