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Opinion polarization and its connected disagreement: Modeling and modulation

Xuzhe Qian (钱徐喆)1,2, Bo-Wei Qin (秦伯韡)1,2,3,*, Huaiping Zhu4, and Wei Lin (林伟)1,2,3,5,†

  • 1School of Mathematical Sciences and Shanghai Center for Mathematical Sciences, Fudan University, 200433 Shanghai, China
  • 2Research Institute of Intelligent Complex Systems, Fudan University, 200433 Shanghai, China
  • 3Shanghai Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, 200232 Shanghai, China
  • 4LAMPS and Canadian Centre for Diseases Modelling, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada M3J 1P3
  • 5State Key Laboratory of Medical Neurobiology and MOE Frontiers Center for Brain Science, Institute of Brain Science, Fudan University, 200032 Shanghai, China

  • *Contact author: boweiqin@fudan.edu.cn
  • †Contact author: wlin@fudan.edu.cn

Phys. Rev. E 113, L012301 – Published 13 January, 2026

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1103/rldl-6t9s

Abstract

Divergent opinions resulting from polarization are widespread across various fields, including economics, technology, and politics, and are often considered the genesis of disagreement among people. Numerous studies were therefore devoted to achieving complete consensus. However, as we show here, polarization is inevitable when individuals exhibit the self-confidence effect in interpreting social pressure, a psychological mechanism that drives adaptive consolidation of biased opinions. We also demonstrate that polarization, which merely reflects opinion distribution, does not necessarily cause high-level connected disagreement, which is highly related to the random walk normalized Laplacian (RWNL) of a network. By developing a networked dynamical model incorporating the self-confidence effect and analyzing the boundaries of opinion patterns, we find that polarization and its connected disagreement have different formation mechanisms. The level of connected disagreement intensifies as the number of unstable eigenmodes of the RWNL increases, a process greatly influenced by network topology. This finding helps us elucidate how connected disagreement evolves across different social networks and, more importantly, provides insights into developing effective modulation strategies to mitigate the level of connected disagreement when eliminating polarization is difficult.

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