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    Survival prediction from neural parametrization of diffusive processes

    Alessio Cristofoletto*

    Cesare Rollo*, Giovanni Birolo†, and Piero Fariselli

    • *These authors contributed equally to this work.
    • †Contact author: giovanni.birolo@unito.it

    Phys. Rev. E 113, 055303 – Published 12 May, 2026

    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1103/r9jt-f69r

    Abstract

    We introduce DeepFHT, a survival-analysis framework that couples deep neural networks with first hitting time (FHT) distributions from stochastic process theory. Time to event is represented as the first passage of a latent diffusion process to an absorbing boundary. A neural network maps input variables to physically meaningful parameters including initial condition, drift, and diffusion, within a chosen FHT process such as Brownian motion, both with drift and driftless. This yields closed-form survival and hazard functions and captures time-varying risk without assuming proportional hazards. We compare DeepFHT with Cox regression and DeepHit using synthetic and real-world datasets. The method achieves predictive accuracy on par with state-of-the-art approaches, while maintaining a physics-based interpretable parametrization that elucidates the relation between input features and risk. This combination of stochastic process theory and deep learning provides a principled avenue for modeling survival phenomena in complex systems.

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