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  • Letter

Percolation theory of self-exciting temporal processes

Daniele Notarmuzi1, Claudio Castellano2, Alessandro Flammini1, Dario Mazzilli1, and Filippo Radicchi1,*

  • 1Center for Complex Networks and Systems Research, Luddy School of Informatics, Computing, and Engineering, Indiana University, Bloomington, Indiana 47408, USA
  • 2Istituto dei Sistemi Complessi (ISC-CNR), Via dei Taurini 19, I-00185 Rome, Italy

  • *Corresponding author: filiradi@indiana.edu

Phys. Rev. E 103, L020302 – Published 24 February, 2021

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.103.L020302

Abstract

We investigate how the properties of inhomogeneous patterns of activity, appearing in many natural and social phenomena, depend on the temporal resolution used to define individual bursts of activity. To this end, we consider time series of microscopic events produced by a self-exciting Hawkes process, and leverage a percolation framework to study the formation of macroscopic bursts of activity as a function of the resolution parameter. We find that the very same process may result in different distributions of avalanche size and duration, which are understood in terms of the competition between the 1D percolation and the branching process universality class. Pure regimes for the individual classes are observed at specific values of the resolution parameter corresponding to the critical points of the percolation diagram. A regime of crossover characterized by a mixture of the two universal behaviors is observed in a wide region of the diagram. The hybrid scaling appears to be a likely outcome for an analysis of the time series based on a reasonably chosen, but not precisely adjusted, value of the resolution parameter.

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