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Optimal control in pandemics

Joseph Samuel1,2 and Supurna Sinha1

  • 1Raman Research Institute, Bangalore 560080, India
  • 2International Center for Theoretical Sciences, Tata Institute of Fundamental Research, Bangalore 560089, India

Phys. Rev. E 103, L010301 – Published 19 January, 2021

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.103.L010301

Abstract

During a pandemic, there are conflicting demands that arise from public health and socioeconomic costs. Lockdowns are a common way of containing infections, but they adversely affect the economy. We study the question of how to minimize the socioeconomic damage of a lockdown while still containing infections. Our analysis is based on the SIR model, which we analyze using a clock set by the virus. This use of the “virus time” permits a clean mathematical formulation of our problem. We optimize the socioeconomic cost for a fixed health cost and arrive at a strategy for navigating the pandemic. This involves adjusting the level of lockdowns in a controlled manner so as to minimize the socioeconomic cost.

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Corrections

7 July, 2021

Correction: The omission of a support statement in the Acknowledgments has been fixed.

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