Fitness inference tested by in silico population genetics
Phys. Rev. E 113, 044415 – Published 22 April, 2026
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1103/4ljm-gy5p
Abstract
We consider populations evolving according to natural selection, mutation, and recombination and assume that the genomes of all or a representative selection of individuals are known. We pose the problem of whether it is possible to infer fitness parameters and genotype fitness order from such data. We tested this hypothesis in simulated populations. We delineate parameter ranges where this is possible and other ranges where it is not. Our work provides a framework for determining when fitness inference is feasible from population-wide, whole-genome, time-stratified data and highlights settings where it is not. We give a brief survey of biological model organisms and human pathogens that fit into this framework.
