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    Fast and accurate parameter estimation of high-redshift sources with the Einstein Telescope

    Filippo Santoliquido1,2,*, Jacopo Tissino1,2, Ulyana Dupletsa1,2,3, Marica Branchesi1,2, Jan Harms1,2, Manuel Arca Sedda1,2, Maximilian Dax4,5,6, Annalena Kofler6,7, Stephen R. Green8 et al.

    Nihar Gupte7,9, Isobel M. Romero-Shaw10,11,12, and Emanuele Berti13

    • *Contact author: filippo.santoliquido@gssi.it

    Phys. Rev. D 112, 103015 – Published 10 November, 2025

    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1103/wf1k-p5cl

    Abstract

    The Einstein Telescope (ET), along with other third-generation gravitational wave (GW) detectors, will be a key instrument for detecting GWs in the coming decades. However, analyzing the data and estimating source parameters will be challenging, especially given the large number of expected detections—on the order of 105 per year—which make current methods based on stochastic sampling impractical. In this work, we use dingo-is to perform neural posterior estimation (NPE) of high-redshift events detectable with ET in its triangular configuration. NPE is a likelihood-free inference technique that leverages normalizing flows to approximate posterior distributions. After training, inference is fast, requiring only a few minutes per source, and accurate, as corrected through importance sampling and validated against standard Bayesian inference methods. To confirm previous findings on the ability to estimate parameters for high-redshift sources with ET, we compare NPE results with predictions from the Fisher information matrix (FIM) approximation. We find that NPE correctly recovers the eight degenerate sky modes induced by the triangular detector geometry, missed by the FIM analysis, resulting in an underestimation of sky localization uncertainties for most sources. FIM also overestimates the uncertainty in luminosity distance by a factor of ∼3 on average when the injected luminosity distance is dLinj>105  Mpc, further confirming that ET will be particularly well suited for studying the early Universe.

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