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Accuracy of ringdown models calibrated to numerical relativity simulations

Francesco Crescimbeni1,2,*, Gregorio Carullo3,†, Emanuele Berti4,‡, Giada Caneva Santoro5,6,§, Mark Ho-Yeuk Cheung4,7,∥, and Paolo Pani1,2,¶

  • *Contact author: francesco.crescimbeni@uniroma1.it
  • †Contact author: g.carullo@bham.ac.uk
  • ‡Contact author: berti@jhu.edu
  • §Contact author: giada.santoro@nbi.ku.dk
  • ∥Contact author: mcheung@ias.edu
  • Contact author: paolo.pani@uniroma1.it
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Phys. Rev. D 113, 124026 – Published 10 June, 2026

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1103/wdqf-11xc

Abstract

The “ringdown” stage of gravitational-wave signals from binary black hole mergers, mainly consisting of a superposition of quasinormal modes emitted by the merger remnant, is a key tool to test fundamental physics and to probe black hole dynamics. However, ringdown models are known to be accurate only in the late-time, stationary regime. A key open problem in the field is to understand if these models are robust when extrapolated to earlier times, and if they can faithfully recover a larger portion of the signal. We address this question through a systematic time-domain calculation of the mismatch between nonprecessing, quasicircular ringdown models parametrized by the progenitor binary’s degrees of freedom and full numerical relativity inspiral-merger-ringdown waveforms from the simulating extreme spacetimes (SXS) simulation catalog. For the best-performing models, the mismatch is typically in the range [10−6,10−4] for the (ℓ,|m|)=(2,2) harmonic, and [10−4,10−2] for higher-order modes. Our findings inform ongoing observational searches for quasinormal modes, and underscore the need for improved modeling of higher-order modes to meet the sensitivity requirements of future gravitational-wave detectors.

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Phys. Rev. D 113, 124026– Published 10 June, 2026
  • Received 13 November 2025
  • Accepted 20 May 2026
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