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    Evaluating statistical significance for massive black hole binary mergers with space-based gravitational wave detectors

    Hong-Yu Chen (陈洪昱), En-Kun Li (李恩坤), and Yi-Ming Hu (胡一鸣)*

    • MOE Key Laboratory of TianQin Mission, TianQin Research Center for Gravitational Physics and School of Physics and Astronomy, Frontiers Science Center for TianQin, Gravitational Wave Research Center of CNSA, Sun Yat-sen University (Zhuhai Campus), Zhuhai, 519082, China

    • *Contact author: huyiming@sysu.edu.cn

    Phys. Rev. D 113, 042002 – Published 11 February, 2026

    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1103/vkt2-jfst

    Abstract

    Important scientific discoveries should be backed by high statistical significance. In the 2030s, multiple space-based gravitational wave detectors are expected to operate. While many works aim to achieve quick and reliable detection and parameter estimation of millihertz gravitational wave sources, dedicated studies are lacking to assess the significance of space-based detectors. In this work, we propose a framework to assess the statistical significance of massive black hole binary (MBHB) detections with space-based gravitational wave detectors. We apply this algorithm to simulated data with Gaussian stationary noise and the complex LDC-2a dataset to measure the false alarm rate and significance of MBHB signals. We also analyze factors affecting the significance of MBHBs and design a method to mitigate multisource confusion interference. In Gaussian noise conditions, MBHBs with a signal-to-noise ratio of about 7 can achieve 3σ significance, and those with a signal-to-noise ratio of about 8 achieve 4σ. Our analysis demonstrates that all MBHB signals in the LDC-2a dataset have a significance exceeding 4.62σ.

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