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  • Open Access

Population-level correlations in Bayesian statistics: An illustrative model for gravitational-wave astronomy

Caroline B. Owen*, Alexandre Toubiana, and Davide Gerosa

  • *Contact author: cbo2@williams.edu
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Phys. Rev. D 114, 083041 – Published 22 October, 2026

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1103/nhtw-rdxf

Abstract

With increasingly large numbers of gravitational-wave events, population inference is now beginning to move beyond predictions of marginal distributions and to probe correlations between compact-binary parameters such as masses, spins, and redshifts. These correlations have strong constraining power for both astrophysics and tests of general relativity. In this paper, we present an idealized analytical model to study the interplay between single-event correlations, systematic biases, and population-level correlations. With this, we investigate the potential emergence of false-positive measurements of population-level correlations. We quantify how the presence of correlations at the single-event level between a pair of parameters increases the uncertainty of population-level correlations for those parameters, potentially obscuring the true underlying population correlation if present. We also find that if waveform systematics lead to biases that are correlated across the catalog (which is likely, because certain regions of the parameter space are more difficult to model), this can be effectively absorbed by a population analysis that targets correlations and can be misinterpreted as such. This simple Gaussian-based model may serve as a broad compass for future, more detailed explorations.

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Phys. Rev. D 114, 083041– Published 22 October, 2026
  • Received 18 June 2026
  • Accepted 14 September 2026
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Published by the American Physical Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license. Further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the published article’s title, journal citation, and DOI.

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