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    Cosmological impacts of black hole mergers: No relief in sight for the Hubble tension

    Zachary J. Hoelscher* and Thomas W. Kephart

    Kelly Holley-Bockelmann†

    • Department of Physics and Astronomy, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, Tennessee 37235, USA and Department of Life and Physical Sciences, Fisk University, Nashville, Tennessee 37208, USA

    • *Contact author: zachary.j.hoelscher@vanderbilt.edu
    • †Contact author: k.holley@vanderbilt.edu

    Phys. Rev. D 112, 123509 – Published 4 December, 2025

    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1103/n9xb-qm3y

    Abstract

    The values of the Hubble constant inferred from local measurements and the cosmic microwave background (CMB) exhibit an approximately 5σ tension. Some have suggested this tension is alleviated if matter is converted to dark radiation via dark matter decay. As it is not clear that dark matter decays, we instead examine the effects of converting matter to gravitational radiation via black hole mergers. We consider mergers of supermassive black holes (SMBHs), mergers of stellar-mass black holes, and the formation of SMBHs from mergers of smaller black holes. We find that these processes cannot alleviate the tension, as an unrealistically large merger rate, or an overproduction of SMBHs is required. We also consider whether one can use the integrated Sachs-Wolfe effect to constrain mechanisms that form SMBHs from mergers of smaller black holes. We find that this is also too small to be viable.

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