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    Machine learning the tip of the red giant branch

    Mitchell T. Dennis1 and Jeremy Sakstein2

    Phys. Rev. D 112, 063051 – Published 25 September, 2025

    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1103/n2sv-9mpd

    Abstract

    A method for investigating the sensitivity of the tip of the red giant branch (TRGB) I band magnitude MI to stellar input physics is presented. We compute a grid of ∼125,000 theoretical stellar models with varying mass, initial helium abundance, and initial metallicity, and train a machine learning emulator to predict MI as a function of these parameters. First, our emulator can be used to theoretically predict MI in a given galaxy using Monte Carlo sampling. As an example, we predict MI=−3.87−0.08+0.11 in the Large Magellanic Cloud (F20). Second, our emulator enables a direct comparison of theoretical predictions for MI with empirical calibrations to constrain stellar modeling parameters using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. We demonstrate this by using empirical TRGB calibrations to obtain new independent measurements of the metallicity in three galaxies. We find log10(Z)=−2.167−0.492+0.404 and log10(Z)=−2.098−0.528+0.388 in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC, F20 and Y19, respectively), log10(Z)=−2.146−0.505+0.400 in NGC 4258, and log10(Z)=−2.143−0.508+0.401 in ω-Centauri. The LMC and NGC 4258 measurements are consistent with other measurements within <1σ errors, and the ω-Centauri measurements are within <2σ errors.

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