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    Likelihood-free inference for gravitational-wave data analysis and public alerts

    Ethan Marx1,2, Deep Chatterjee1,2, Malina Desai1,2, Ravi Kumar3,4, William Benoit4, Argyro Sasli4, Leo Singer5, Michael W. Coughlin4, Philip Harris1 et al.

    Erik Katsavounidis1,2

    • 1Department of Physics, MIT, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139, USA
    • 2LIGO Laboratory, 185 Albany Street, MIT, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139, USA
    • 3Department of Aerospace Engineering, IIT Bombay, Powai, Mumbai, 400076, India
    • 4School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota 55455, USA
    • 5Astroparticle Physics Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Code 661, Greenbelt, Maryland 20771, USA

    Phys. Rev. D 113, 063020 – Published 10 March, 2026

    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1103/llm2-4qs4

    Abstract

    Rapid and reliable detection and dissemination of source parameter estimation data products from gravitational-wave events, especially sky localization, is critical for maximizing the potential of multimessenger astronomy. Machine learning based detection and parameter estimation algorithms are emerging as production ready alternatives to traditional approaches. Here, we report validation studies of AMPLFI, a likelihood-free inference solution to low-latency parameter estimation of binary black holes. We use simulated signals added into data from the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA’s (LVK’s) third observing run (O3) to compare sky localization performance with BAYESTAR, the algorithm currently in production for rapid sky localization of candidates from matched-filter pipelines. We demonstrate sky localization performance, measured by searched area and volume, to be equivalent with BAYESTAR. We show accurate reconstruction of source parameters with uncertainties for use in distributing low-latency coarse-grained chirp mass information. In addition, we analyze several candidate events reported by the LVK in the third gravitational-wave transient catalog (GWTC-3) and show consistency with the LVK’s analysis. Altogether, we demonstrate AMPLFI’s ability to produce data products for low-latency public alerts.

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