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    Heavy tailed non-Gaussianity of the supermassive black hole gravitational wave background

    Juhan Raidal1,2,*, Juan Urrutia1,2,†, Ville Vaskonen1,3,4,‡, and Hardi Veermäe1,§

    • *Contact author: juhan.raidal@kbfi.ee
    • †Contact author: juan.urrutia@kbfi.ee
    • ‡Contact author: ville.vaskonen@kbfi.ee
    • §Contact author: hardi.veermae@cern.ch

    Phys. Rev. D 114, 043550 – Published 28 August, 2026

    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1103/kjg1-mwpx

    Abstract

    We study the non-Gaussian features of the gravitational wave (GW) background generated by a population of inspiraling supermassive black hole (SMBH) binaries. We show that the SMBH GW amplitude distribution (GWAD) features a universal heavy power-law tail ∝A−4, while the low-amplitude tail depends on the SMBH merger rate and the energy-loss mechanisms of the binaries. The distribution of the induced timing residuals inherits this heavy tail. As a result, the ensemble averaged statistical moments of order three and higher diverge, limiting their usefulness as measures of non-Gaussianity, and the GW background from SMBH binaries exhibits the single loud source principle, according to which the strongest signals are more likely to be caused by a small number of loud sources. We confirm that the variance-averaged Gaussian approximation accurately describes the timing residual statistics. This approximation justifies a factored likelihood structure that combines standard Gaussian-process PTA posteriors with the non-Gaussian population prior, enabling consistent incorporation of non-Gaussian effects into SMBH model inference. We provide a fast and flexible python implementation to compute the distribution of timing residuals from a given SMBH merger rate or GWAD.

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