Multiparameter transitions in cosmological calibrators: A resolution to the Hubble tension from a SH0ES data analysis
Phys. Rev. D 113, 083512 – Published 7 April, 2026
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1103/k2n4-xxcz
Abstract
The Hubble tension, characterized by discrepant measurements of the Hubble constant from early and late Universe probes, remains one of the most significant challenges in cosmology. Building upon our previous analysis of individual parameter transitions in SH0ES data, we investigate the impact of simultaneous transitions in multiple Cepheid and SNIa calibration parameters at specific cosmic distances. We allow various combinations of transitions in Cepheid absolute magnitude (), period-luminosity relation slope (), metallicity coefficient (), and SNIa absolute magnitude (). Our comprehensive analysis reveals a consistent preferred transition distance of approximately 23 Mpc across different parameter combinations. Our most akaike information criterion (AIC)-favored configuration is the dual-transition model () at , yielding and relative to the baseline SH0ES model. While AIC moderately favors transition models across the scan, Bayesian information criterion (BIC) consistently prefers the baseline due to its stronger complexity penalty. Our primary, data-driven result is that the SH0ES data prefer transitions at by and AIC across model families; these models yield , maintaining tension with Planck, and remains positive. As a separate case study, the model at yields (Planck compatible) but receives weaker statistical support and requires large parameter shifts. This demonstrates that calibration inhomogeneities of this form could, in principle, reconcile the tension, though we do not claim this configuration is preferred by the data.