Bayesian and frequentist perspectives agree on dynamical dark energy
Phys. Rev. D 113, 123551 – Published 26 June, 2026
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1103/gw6q-5k5j
Abstract
Baryon acoustic oscillation data from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument show evidence of a deviation from a cosmological constant within a Bayesian analysis. In this work, we validate that frequentist constraints from profile likelihoods on the Chevallier-Polarski-Linder parameters , are in excellent agreement with the Bayesian constraints when combining with Planck cosmic microwave background, Planck and Atacama Cosmology Telescope lensing, and either or Dark Energy Survey Year 5 supernova data. Further, we assess which datasets drive these constraints by considering the contributions to the from the individual datasets. For profile likelihoods of the matter fraction , such an investigation shows internal inconsistencies when assuming , which are resolved when assuming a dark-energy model. We infer the equations of state at the pivot redshifts, supporting previous interpretations that current data appear to be more sensitive to the derivative of rather than a mean offset from . Thus, our frequentist analysis corroborates previous findings on dynamical dark energy.