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    Bayesian and frequentist perspectives agree on dynamical dark energy

    Laura Herold1,* and Tanvi Karwal2,†

    • *Contact author: lherold@jhu.edu
    • †Contact author: karwal@uchicago.edu

    Phys. Rev. D 113, 123551 – Published 26 June, 2026

    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1103/gw6q-5k5j

    Abstract

    Baryon acoustic oscillation data from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument show evidence of a deviation from a cosmological constant Λ within a Bayesian analysis. In this work, we validate that frequentist constraints from profile likelihoods on the Chevallier-Polarski-Linder parameters w0, wa are in excellent agreement with the Bayesian constraints when combining with Planck cosmic microwave background, Planck and Atacama Cosmology Telescope lensing, and either Pantheon+ or Dark Energy Survey Year 5 supernova data. Further, we assess which datasets drive these constraints by considering the contributions to the χ2 from the individual datasets. For profile likelihoods of the matter fraction Ωm, such an investigation shows internal inconsistencies when assuming Λ, which are resolved when assuming a w0wa dark-energy model. We infer the equations of state w(z) at the pivot redshifts, supporting previous interpretations that current data appear to be more sensitive to the derivative of w(z) rather than a mean offset from Λ. Thus, our frequentist analysis corroborates previous findings on dynamical dark energy.

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