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    Gravitational-wave parameter estimation to the Moon and back: Massive binaries and the case of GW231123

    Francesco Iacovelli1,*, Jacopo Tissino2,3, Jan Harms2,3, and Emanuele Berti1

    • *Contact author: fiacovelli@jhu.edu

    Phys. Rev. D 113, 123062 – Published 23 June, 2026

    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1103/d2rh-btf9

    Abstract

    We study the prospects of the Lunar Gravitational-Wave Antenna (LGWA), a proposed deci-Hz GW detector, to observe binary black holes (BBHs) and enable multiband science with ground-based detectors. We assess the detectability of the events observed by current instruments up to the Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog 4.0 data release, and of simulated populations consistent with the latest reconstruction by the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA Collaboration. We find that the LGWA alone would have been able to observe more than one-third of the events detected so far, and that it could detect ∼90 events merging in the ground-based band per year out to redshifts z∼3–5. Current detectors at design sensitivity and 100% duty cycle could detect thousands of BBHs per year, with one to a few hundred multiband counterparts in the LGWA. Third-generation (3G) detectors can observe most of the BBHs detected by the LGWA merging in their frequency band in the simulated mass range 7M⊙≲Mtot≲600M⊙, enabling systematic joint analyses of hundreds of events. The short time to merger from the deci-Hz band to the Hz-kHz band (typically months to a year) allows for early warning, targeted follow-up, and archival searches. Multiband observations of intermediate-mass BBHs in the deci-Hz band are particularly promising. We perform an injection study for a GW231123-like system (the most massive BBH detection to date, which accumulates ∼105 inspiral cycles in the LGWA) and show that deci-Hz observations can measure the chirp mass even better than 3G instruments and yield good sky localization and inclination measurement, even with a single observatory. Opening the deci-Hz band would substantially improve the prospects of GW astronomy for intermediate-mass BBHs.

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