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Curvature tension: Evidence for a closed universe

Will Handley1,2,3,*

  • 1Astrophysics Group, Cavendish Laboratory, J. J. Thomson Avenue, Cambridge CB3 0HE, United Kingdom
  • 2Kavli Institute for Cosmology, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0HA, United Kingdom
  • 3Gonville & Caius College, Trinity Street, Cambridge CB2 1TA, United Kingdom†

Phys. Rev. D 103, L041301 – Published 5 February, 2021

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevD.103.L041301

Abstract

The curvature parameter tension between Planck 2018, cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing, and baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) data is measured using the suspiciousness statistic to be 2.5–3σ. Conclusions regarding the spatial curvature of the Universe which stem from the combination of these data should therefore be viewed with suspicion. Without CMB lensing or BAO, Planck 2018 has a moderate preference for closed universes, with Bayesian betting odds of over 50∶1 against a flat universe and over 2000∶1 against an open universe.

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