Dissecting the Hubble tension: Insights from a diverse set of sound-horizon-free measurements
Phys. Rev. D 114, 063507 – Published 3 September, 2026
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1103/9pbn-13q8
Abstract
The Hubble tension is commonly framed as a discrepancy between local, late-time measurements favoring and early-time, sound-horizon-based measurements favoring . We challenge this viewpoint by analyzing 88 sound-horizon-free measurements, categorized into four classes: distance ladder measurements using local calibrators; local cold dark matter () measurements assuming the standard expansion history; pure local measurements independent of shape; and cosmic microwave background (CMB) sound-horizon-free measurements using CMB data without the sound horizon scale. Our analysis reveals that the 30 distance ladder measurements yield (), while the 58 distance ladder-independent/sound horizon free measurements collectively yield (). After accounting for realistic correlations between measurements, the tension between the two ensembles is depending on the assumed correlation strength; we adopt the conservative value of as our reference estimate. Under the idealized assumption of fully independent measurements it would reach . Among categories, Local measurements favor the lowest value (), pure local yields an intermediate value (), and CMB sound horizon free measurements give . Within the sound-horizon-free sample considered here, the distance ladder thus sits systematically high compared with all other methodologies, a result that is stable under all tested variations of the measurement categorization. This suggests that the Hubble tension may be more accurately characterized as a discrepancy between the distance ladder and all other methodologies, rather than as a purely early- vs late-time split. We also identify an internal tension among distance ladder-independent/sound horizon free measurements, which is however sensitive to categorization choices, ranging from to ( in our baseline analysis): analyses assuming systematically recover lower values by compared to cosmological-model-independent methods. This suggests either unrecognized systematics in the distance ladder or deviations from or both.