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    Bayesian model selection for primordial black holes and dressed primordial black holes with lensed gravitational waves

    Xin-yi Lin1,*, Zhengxiang Li1,†, and Jian-dong Zhang2,‡

    • 1School of Physics and Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    • 2MOE Key Laboratory of TianQin Mission, TianQin Research Center for Gravitational Physics and School of Physics and Astronomy, Frontiers Science Center for TianQin, CNSA Research Center for Gravitational Waves, Sun Yat-sen University (Zhuhai Campus), Zhuhai 519082, China

    • *Contact author: xinyilin@bnu.edu.cn
    • †Contact author: zxli918@bnu.edu.cn
    • ‡Contact author: zhangjd9@mail.sysu.edu.cn

    Phys. Rev. D 112, 043038 – Published 28 August, 2025

    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1103/5y6q-8f89

    Abstract

    If particle dark matter (DM) and primordial black holes (PBHs) coexist, PBHs will be surrounded by particle DM, forming celestial objects known as dressed PBHs (dPBHs). These structures suggest a scenario in which PBHs and DM can exist simultaneously. However, in the high-frequency regime, the gravitational lensing effect of bare PBHs is similar to that of dPBHs. Ground-based gravitational wave (GW) detectors are particularly sensitive to high-frequency GW signals. In this regime, the lensing effect of a point-mass lens with a mass in the range of 10−1−102M⊙ becomes significant. In this work, we incorporate dPBH models with GW observations and employ Bayesian inference techniques to distinguish PBHs from dPBHs. Using the third-generation ground-based GW detectors, Einstein Telescope (ET) and Cosmic Explorer (CE), as examples, we demonstrate that these detectors can effectively differentiate the lensing effects of dPBHs from those of PBHs across a broad frequency range. Furthermore, we find that with a larger black hole mass inside the surrounding particle DM, ET and CE can distinguish these two lensed models with even greater precision.

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