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    Is the stochastic signal really detectable?

    Federico Pozzoli*

    Jonathan Gair

    Riccardo Buscicchio

    Lorenzo Speri

    • *Contact author: fpozzoli@uninsubria.it

    Phys. Rev. D 112, 064035 – Published 15 September, 2025

    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1103/22h4-tqh9

    Abstract

    Separating a stochastic gravitational wave background (SGWB) from noise is a challenging statistical task. One approach to establishing a detection criterion for the SGWB is using Bayesian evidence. If the evidence ratio (Bayes factor) between models with and without the signal exceeds a certain threshold, the signal is considered detected. We present a formalism to compute the averaged Bayes factor, incorporating instrumental-noise and SGWB uncertainties. As an example, we consider the case of power-law-shaped SGWB in LISA and generate the corresponding Bayesian sensitivity curve. Unlike existing methods in the literature, which typically neglect uncertainties in both the signal and noise, our approach provides a reliable and realistic alternative. This flexible framework opens avenues for more robust stochastic gravitational wave background detection across gravitational-wave experiments.

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