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    Cosmic tensions indirectly correlate with reionization optical depth

    Itamar J. Allali*

    Lingfeng Li†

    Praniti Singh‡

    JiJi Fan§

    • Department of Physics, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island 02912, USA and Brown Theoretical Physics Center, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island 02912, USA

    • *Contact author: itamar_allali@brown.edu
    • †Contact author: l.f.li165@gmail.com
    • ‡Contact author: praniti_singh@brown.edu
    • §Contact author: jiji_fan@brown.edu

    Phys. Rev. D 113, 083515 – Published 10 April, 2026

    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1103/14tf-4nk2

    Abstract

    The reionization optical depth τreio has interesting connections to existing cosmological anomalies. As first studied in the context of the Hubble tension in our previous paper, a larger τreio, which could be achieved by removing the Planck low-ℓ polarization data, could boost H0 slightly, resulting in a mild reduction of the tension between the early- and late-Universe determinations of H0. It has been shown later that a larger τreio could also relieve other anomalies including: the tension between baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) and cosmic microwave background (CMB) data, the neutrino mass tension, and the latest Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument plus supernovae data’s tension with the standard cosmological constant scenario. In this paper, we systematically analyze the correlations between τreio and relevant cosmological parameters in the existing cosmic observation anomalies. In addition to Pearson correlation coefficients extracted directly from the covariance matrix, we also study partial correlation coefficients which measure intrinsic relationships between pairs of parameters removing the influence of other parameters. Introducing these methods of partial correlations to cosmology, we show that τreio has weak intrinsic correlations with the parameters responsible for the tensions and anomalies discussed. The large direct Pearson correlations that allow larger τreio inferences to alleviate the cosmological tensions each arise from complicated networks through multiple parameters. As a result, the relationships between τreio and each anomaly are not independent of other parameters. We also introduce causal inference methods to cosmological data analyses, computing correlations to clarify the impact of large scale polarization data and the effects of CMB observations from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope and the South Pole Telescope.

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