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    Seeking spinning subpopulations of black hole binaries via iterative density estimation

    Jam Sadiq1,2,*, Thomas Dent3, and Ana Lorenzo-Medina3

    • *Contact author: jamlucky.qau@gmail.com

    Phys. Rev. D 112, 123054 – Published 30 December, 2025

    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1103/117r-lsw2

    Abstract

    Attempts to understand the formation of binary black hole (BBH) systems detected via gravitational wave (GW) emission are affected by many unknowns and uncertainties, from both the observational and theoretical (astrophysical modeling) sides. Binary component spins have been proposed as a means to investigate formation channels, however obtaining clear inferences is challenging, given the apparently low magnitude of almost all merging BH spins and their high measurement uncertainties. Even for the effective aligned spin χeff which is more precisely measured than component spins, specific model assumptions have been required to identify any clear trends. Here, we reconstruct the joint component mass and χeff distribution of BBH mergers with minimal assumptions using the GWTC-3 catalog, using an iterative kernel density estimation-based method. We reproduce some features seen in previous analyses, for instance a small but preferentially positive χeff for low-mass mergers; we also identify a possible subpopulation of higher-spin BBH with |χeff| up to ∼0.75 for primary masses m1≳40M⊙, in addition to the bulk of the distribution with |χeff|≲0.2. This finding is consistent with previous studies indicating a broader spin distribution at high mass, suggesting a distinct origin for the high-spin systems. We also identify a new potential trend of low-mass BBHs; the derivative of χeff with respect to m1 (m2) is positive (negative) over the 10–15M⊙ range. This apparent structure may be related to a previously reported anticorrelation between mass ratio and χeff.

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