Conformal prediction for uncertainties in the neutron star equation of state
Phys. Rev. C 114, 045803 – Published 5 October, 2026
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1103/15zm-3bll
Abstract
We study uncertainties in the equation of state of neutron stars using conformal prediction as a distribution-free and model-agnostic method that provides coverage guarantees. In particular, we apply the Conformalized Quantile Regression (CQR) method to posterior samples calculated from Bayesian inference, creating reliable uncertainty bands without assuming a specific form of the underlying distribution. We first construct CQR bands using a polytropic equation of state and the Tolman-Oppenheimer-Volkoff equations. We then apply CQR as a postprocessing step to the posterior distribution of neutron star mass-radius relations provided by the NMMA Collaboration and to quantum Monte Carlo calculations of pure neutron matter. In all cases, empirical coverage studies confirm the robustness of the method.
