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  • Open Access

Collective and Nonlinear Structure of Wind-Power Correlations

Samy E. Lakhal1,*, J.E. Sardonia2, and M.M. Bandi1,†

  • 1Nonlinear and Non-Equilibrium Physics Unit, OIST Graduate University, Onna 904 0495, Japan
  • 2Exus Renewables North America, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15219, USA

  • *Contact author: samy.lakhal@oist.jp
  • †Contact author: bandi@oist.jp
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PRX Energy 5, 023007 – Published 28 May, 2026

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1103/vms3-ng8z

Abstract

We describe the correlation structure of wind-power fluctuations in a farm of 80 turbines, sampled over 5 years. We report the presence of universal, collective, and nonlinear correlations, responsible for the excess persistency and intermittency of farm-aggregated power output. A first cross-correlation analysis of turbine production reveals a dynamical scaling transition (à la Family-Vicszek) from local decoherence to large-scale turbulence-driven scaling, and responsible for the geographical smoothing effect, previously reported beyond farm scale [M. M. Bandi, Spectrum of wind-power fluctuations, Phys. Rev. Lett. 118, 028301 (2017)]. A second bivariate analysis shows the long-range correlation of non-Gaussian features, responsible for their amplification in total farm output. These findings provide important insights into wind energy, the variability of which directly results from atmospheric turbulent forcing. By characterizing the multivariate and intermittent structure of fluctuations, our results advance the current understanding of wind-power variability and provide valuable priors for grid management and storage optimization, thereby supporting improved integration of wind energy into modern power systems.

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This article appears in the following collection:

Physics and Control of Energy Systems

This collection from PRX Energy showcases physics-informed methods for energy systems, with an emphasis on control, optimization, reliability, and resilience under uncertainty.

The Collection is being guest-edited by Michael (Misha) Chertkov from the University of Arizona, Philippe Jacquod from the University of Applied Sciences Western Switzerland, and Mert Korkali from the University of Missouri. Every article in this Collection is subject to a rigorous peer review process, upholding the high standards applied to all papers in the journal. The PRX Energy editorial team manages peer review and makes all editorial decisions.

Popular Summary

Using five years of data from 80 wind turbines, this study reveals that wind farms behave less like collections of independent generators and more like a coordinated turbulent system. The researchers found that fluctuations in power output are linked across turbines through large-scale atmospheric turbulence, creating persistent variations in the farm's total electricity production. The study also shows that rare, extreme fluctuations are themselves correlated over long distances and can become amplified in the farm-wide output. These results improve our understanding of wind power variability and could help design better forecasting, energy storage, and grid-management strategies.

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PRX Energy 5, 023007– Published 28 May, 2026
  • Received 18 April 2025
  • Revised 6 February 2026
  • Accepted 4 May 2026
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