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Saddle avoidance of noise-induced transitions in multiscale systems

Reyk Börner1,*,†, Ryan Deeley2,*,‡, Raphael Römer3, Tobias Grafke4, Valerio Lucarini5, and Ulrike Feudel2

  • *These authors contributed equally to this work.
  • †Contact author: reyk.boerner@reading.ac.uk
  • ‡Contact author: ryan.deeley@uni-oldenburg.de

The Effect of Timescale Separation on the Tipping Window for Chaotically Forced Systems

Raphael Römer and Peter Ashwin

SIAM J. Appl. Dyn. Syst. 25 1518 (2026)

Science Needs for a Terrestrial Biosphere Tipping Point Early Warning System

Jesse F. Abrams, Chris Huntingford, Sergei Petrovskii, Joshua E. Buxton, Helen Millman, Chris A. Boulton, Robert J. Parker, Cristina Ruiz Villena, Andrew M. Cunliffe, Joseph Clarke, Valerio Lucarini, Darren Ghent, Peter M. Cox, and Timothy M. Lenton

Reviews of Geophysics 64 e2025RG000900 (2026)

Bifurcation potential fields for resilience analysis in dynamical systems

Kevin L.S. Drury

Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena 494 135258 (2026)

Most probable path and invariant sets in noise-induced transition to turbulence

Yoshiki Hiruta, Kento Yasuda, and Kenta Ishimoto

Phys. Rev. Research 8 023303 (2026)

Climate network characterization of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation edge state

Laure Moinat, Reyk Börner, Valerio Lucarini, Maura Brunetti, and Henk A. Dijkstra

Phys. Rev. Research 8 033268 (2026)

Self-Replication of Turbulent Puffs: On the Edge between Chaotic Saddles

Anton Svirsky, Tobias Grafke, and Anna Frishman

Phys. Rev. Lett. 136 124001 (2026)

Nonreciprocal dynamics with weak noise: Aperiodic “Escher cycles” and their quasipotential landscape

Janik Schüttler, Robert L. Jack, and Michael E. Cates

Phys. Rev. E 114 024104 (2026)

Global stability of the Atlantic overturning circulation: edge state, long transients and boundary crisis under CO2 forcing

Reyk Börner, Oliver Mehling, Jost von Hardenberg, and Valerio Lucarini

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 384 20250087 (2026)

Transitions of the Atlantic Ocean circulation

Henk A. Dijkstra, Bernd Krauskopf, Reyk Börner, and René M. van Westen

Nat Rev Phys 8 410 (2026)

Tipping points in complex ecological systems

Alan Hastings, Sergei Petrovskii, Valerio Lucarini, and Andrew Morozov

Nat Rev Phys (2026)

Phase lag-driven indirect tipping in a seasonally forced coupled ecological system

Ayanava Basak, Syamal Kumar Dana, and Nandadulal Bairagi

J. Phys. Complex. 7 025017 (2026)

Data-driven analysis of metastability in a stochastic bistable system

Ankan Banerjee, Manuel Santos Gutiérrez, John Moroney, and Valerio Lucarini

Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science 36 093137 (2026)

Breakdown of adiabatic scaling and noise-induced functional synchronization in deeply quiescent excitable systems

Yefan Wu

Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science 36 103119 (2026)

Nonlinear public goods game in dynamical environments

Yishen Jiang, Xin Wang, Wenqiang Zhu, Ming Wei, Longzhao Liu, Shaoting Tang, and Hongwei Zheng

Applied Mathematical Modelling 157 116857 (2026)

The role of edge states for early warning of tipping points

Johannes Lohmann, Alfred B. Hansen, Alessandro Lovo, Ruth Chapman, Freddy Bouchet, and Valerio Lucarini

Proc. R. Soc. A. 481 20240753 (2025)

Most likely noise-induced tipping of the overturning circulation in a two-dimensional Boussinesq fluid model

Jelle Soons, Tobias Grafke, and Henk A. Dijkstra

J. Fluid Mech. 1009 A53 (2025)

Quantifying tipping behavior: Geometric early warnings and quasipotentials for a box model of AMOC

Ruth R. Chapman, Peter Ashwin, and Richard A. Wood

Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science 35 023164 (2025)

Tipping mechanisms in a carbon cycle model

Katherine Slyman, Emmanuel Fleurantin, and Christopher K. R. T. Jones

Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science 35 053104 (2025)

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