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  • Open Access

Global warming drives connectivity loss among climate tipping elements

Tomas Scagliarini1,2, Lorenzo Gamba1, Antonello Provenzale3, Timothy M. Lenton4, and Manlio De Domenico1,2,*

  • *Contact author: manlio.dedomenico@unipd.it
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Phys. Rev. Research 8, 033367 – Published 28 September, 2026

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1103/mnvf-tq6g

Abstract

This article is part of a Physical Review Collection on the Physics of Changing Climate.

Tipping elements are large-scale components of the Earth system that may undergo abrupt and potentially irreversible transitions once critical thresholds are crossed. How these elements interact and coevolve under anthropogenic forcing remains poorly understood. Here, we introduce a Bayesian framework to quantify interdependence among tipping element regions based on lagged correlations, yielding a probabilistic measure of their connectivity that rigorously accounts for observational and sampling uncertainty. Using the preindustrial period as a baseline, we show that connectivity patterns among tipping elements are substantially weakened under high anthropogenic forcing, whereas the loss of coherence remains comparatively limited under low-forcing scenarios. This decorrelation is particularly pronounced in the Northern Hemisphere. We further identify the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation as a key contributor to the observed loss of connectivity, in line with recent evidence that it may be approaching a tipping point. In addition, we propose a simple toy model where tipping elements are seen as an adaptive dynamical system, losing coherence as a reaction to external perturbations. The results are robust across past decades and across different climate models, with deviations from the baseline strengthening into the future, especially under high-emission pathways.

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This article appears in the following collection:

Physics in a Changing Climate

Climate Science is a growing field that is attracting colleagues from many disciplines. This Collection, a joint effort by Physical Review E, Physical Review Research, and PRX Energy curated by Prof. Justin Burton from Emory University, aims at providing a survey of the diverse range of topics that scientists with a connection to Physics are exploring in this exciting area of research. This includes climate and related geosciences, sustainability, energy, and material science, and may include fundamental as well as applied research.

Every article in this Collection was subjected to a rigorous peer review process, upholding the high standards applied to all papers. The Physical Review E, Physical Review Research, and PRX Energy editorial teams managed the peer review and made all editorial decisions.

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Phys. Rev. Research 8, 033367– Published 28 September, 2026
  • Received 20 March 2026
  • Accepted 24 July 2026
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Published by the American Physical Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license. Further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the published article's title, journal citation, and DOI.

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