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    Bayesian model selection and uncertainty propagation for beam energy scan heavy-ion collisions

    Syed Afrid Jahan*, Hendrik Roch†, and Chun Shen‡

    • *Contact author: hm0746@wayne.edu
    • †Contact author: Hendrik.Roch@wayne.edu
    • ‡Contact author: chunshen@wayne.edu

    Phys. Rev. C 113, 024919 – Published 27 February, 2026

    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1103/y962-1lyg

    Abstract

    We apply the Bayesian model selection method (based on the Bayes factor) to optimize sNN-dependence in the phenomenological parameters of the (3+1)-dimensional hybrid framework for describing relativistic heavy-ion collisions within the beam energy scan program at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider. The effects of various experimental measurements on the posterior distribution are investigated. We also make model predictions for longitudinal flow decorrelation, rapidity-dependent anisotropic flow, and identified particle v0(pT) in Au+Au collisions, as well as anisotropic flow coefficients in small systems. Systematic uncertainties in the model predictions are estimated using the variance of the simulation results with a few parameter sets sampled from the posterior distributions.

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