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Bayesian inference correlation: From α-particle preformation factor to α-decay properties in heavy and superheavy nuclei

Xiao-Yan Zhu1,*, Wei Gao2, Liqiang Zhu3, Wen-Jing Xing4,†, Xun Chen4,‡, Wen-Bin Lin1,§, and Xiao-Hua Li4,∥

  • *Contact author: xyzhu0128@163.com
  • †Contact author: wenjing.xing@mails.ccnu.edu.cn
  • ‡Contact author: chenxun@usc.edu.cn
  • §Contact author: lwb@usc.edu.cn
  • ∥Contact author: lixiaohuaphysics@126.com
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Phys. Rev. C 112, 024329 – Published 29 August, 2025

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1103/x53t-7fb8

Abstract

In this study, we propose a novel Bayesian inference framework combined with the two-potential approach (TPA) to systematically investigate the α-particle preformation factors and decay properties of heavy and superheavy nuclei. By employing Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, we globally calibrate the adjustable parameters of phenomenological α preformation factors, while incorporating experimental uncertainties in decay energies and half-lives. Our results reveal a significant correlation between the parameters, and the nuclear shell effects near neutron magic numbers N=126, 152, and 162 play a key role. The 95% posterior confidence levels provided by the Bayesian method significantly enhance the reliability of parameter estimation, which is superior to traditional least-squares optimization. Notably, the derived preformation factors exhibit systematic deviations near shell closures, highlighting the necessity of explicitly incorporating nuclear structure effects. This work not only advances the precision of α-decay predictions but also offers a deeper understanding of shell evolution and collective effects in superheavy nuclei.

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Phys. Rev. C 112, 024329– Published 29 August, 2025
  • Received 7 April 2025
  • Revised 15 June 2025
  • Accepted 29 July 2025
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