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    Conformal prediction for uncertainties in nucleon-nucleon scattering

    Habib Yousefi Dezdarani, Ryan Curry, and Alexandros Gezerlis

    Phys. Rev. C 113, 014004 – Published 29 January, 2026

    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1103/2n82-2jvv

    Abstract

    Conformal prediction is a distribution-free and model-agnostic uncertainty-quantification method that provides finite-sample prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage. In this work, for the first time, we apply conformal prediction to generate uncertainty bands for physical observables in nuclear physics, such as the total cross section and nucleon-nucleon phase shifts. We demonstrate the method's flexibility by considering three scenarios: (i) a pointwise model, where expansion coefficients in chiral effective field theory are treated as random variables; (ii) a Gaussian-process model for the coefficients; and (iii) phase shifts at various energies and partial waves calculated using local interactions from chiral effective field theory. In each case, conformal-prediction intervals are constructed and validated empirically. Our results show that conformal prediction provides reliable and adaptive uncertainty bands even in the presence of non-Gaussian behavior, such as skewness and heavy tails. These findings highlight conformal prediction as a robust and practical framework for quantifying theoretical uncertainties.

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