- Physical Review Journals
All JournalsPhysics Magazine

APS Open Science

Reuse & Permissions

It is not necessary to obtain permission to reuse this article or its components as it is available under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license. This license permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided attribution to the author(s) and the published article's title, journal citation, and DOI are maintained. Please note that some figures may have been included with permission from other third parties. It is your responsibility to obtain the proper permission from the rights holder directly for these figures.

Export citation

Export citation

Choose format for download:

Download Citation
  • Open Access

Terraforming Mars: Mass, forcing, and industrial throughput constraints

Slava G. Turyshev*

  • *Contact author: turyshev@jpl.nasa.gov
PDF

APS Open Sci. 1, 000029 – Published 28 May, 2026

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1103/krb8-h3v3

Abstract

Terraforming Mars can be evaluated with system-level constraints linking target pressure and composition to volatile inventory, target temperature to radiative control, climate agents to throughput and power, and persistence to collapse, escape, and geochemical sinks. We use transparent order-of-magnitude scalings to compare endogenous CO2 release, synthetic supergreenhouse gases, CO2−H2 collision-induced absorption, engineered aerosols and nanoparticles, orbital reflectors, and regional paraterraforming. Mars requires 3.89×1015kg of atmosphere per millibar of global mean surface pressure, so open-surface human-relevant pressures require 1017–1018−kg-scale gas inventories. Accessible endogenous CO2 is best treated as an order-of-tens-of-millibar resource: A representative 20 mbar case gives ≲10 K warming and does not close melt-class climates or breathable composition. Mean surface temperatures of 250–273 K require, in a gray/window-weighted architecture model, effective window-weighted longwave optical depth of order unity to a few, or direct absorbed-solar forcing of order 102Wm−2, implying 1013–1014−m2-scale reflector area. A human-breathable open atmosphere is dominated by O2 and buffer gas: pO2=21 kPa and pN2=50 kPa imply 9.0×1017kg and 1.9×1018kg, respectively, and water electrolysis requires reversible work ∼1.3×1025J before inefficiencies and sink-management costs. These bounds apply directly to abiotic industrial oxygenation and to the terminal atmospheric inventories that any human-breathable open Mars must contain; biological bootstrapping can change the path to useful habitability, but not the final O2 and buffer-gas inventory required for an open breathable atmosphere. Under known inventories, regional and covered-area habitability is the physically favored staged path; no surveyed abiotic global open-atmosphere pathway simultaneously closes pressure, composition, warming, power, throughput, retention, sink, and operations constraints.

View figure in article

Physics Subject Headings (PhySH)

Article Text

References (57)

  1. C. P. McKay, Terraforming Mars, J. Br. Interplanet. Soc. 35, 427 (1982).
  2. C. P. McKay, O. B. Toon, and J. F. Kasting, Making Mars habitable, Nature (London) 352, 489 (1991).
  3. R. Zubrin and C. P. McKay, Technological requirements for terraforming Mars, in Proceedings of the 29th Joint Propulsion Conference and Exhibit, AIAA Paper 93-2005 (American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Reston, VA, Monterey, CA, 1993), pp. 1–13.
  4. M. J. Fogg, Terraforming: Engineering Planetary Environments (SAE International, Warrendale, PA, 1995).
  5. C. P. McKay and M. M. Marinova, The physics, biology, and environmental ethics of making Mars habitable, Astrobiology 1, 89 (2001).
  6. B. M. Jakosky and C. S. Edwards, Inventory of CO2 available for terraforming Mars, Nat. Astron. 2, 634 (2018).
  7. B. M. Tutolo et al., Carbonates identified by the Curiosity rover indicate a carbon cycle operated on ancient Mars, Science 388, 292 (2025).
  8. P. B. Buhler, A. P. Ingersoll, B. L. Ehlmann, P. O. Hayne, and S. Piqueux, Coevolution of Mars's atmosphere and massive south polar CO2 ice deposit, Nat. Astron. 4, 364 (2020).
  9. P. B. Buhler and S. Piqueux, Obliquity-driven CO2 exchange between Mars’ atmosphere, regolith, and polar cap, J. Geophys. Res. Planets 126, e2020JE006759 (2021).
  10. A. Broquet, M. A. Wieczorek, and W. Fa, The composition of the South Polar Cap of Mars derived from orbital data, J. Geophys. Res. Planets 126, e2020JE006730 (2021).
  11. R. Wordsworth, L. Kerber, and C. S. Cockell, Enabling Martian habitability with silica aerogel via the solid-state greenhouse effect, Nat. Astron. 3, 898 (2019).
  12. R. Wordsworth and C. Cockell, Self-sustaining living habitats in extraterrestrial environments, Astrobiology 24, 1187 (2024).
  13. R. Wordsworth, R. Quayum, E. Kocharian, A. Pearson, X. Portillo, M. Yang, C. S. Cockell, S. Nangle, and G. Church, Biomaterials for organically generated habitats beyond Earth, Sci. Adv. 11, eadp4985 (2025).
  14. S. Ansari et al., Feasibility of keeping Mars warm with nanoparticles, Sci. Adv. 10, eadn4650 (2024).
  15. M. I. Richardson, S. Ansari, B. Fan, R. Ramirez, H. Mohseni, M. A. Mischna, M. H. Hecht, L. J. Steele, F. Sharipov, and E. S. Kite, Atmospheric dynamics of IR-active particles released from Mars’ surface, Geophys. Res. Lett. 53, e2025GL121051 (2026).
  16. E. A. DeBenedictis, E. S. Kite, R. D. Wordsworth, N. L. Lanza, C. S. Cockell, P. A. Silver, R. M. Ramirez, J. Cumbers, H. Mohseni, C. E. Mason, W. W. Fischer, and C. P. McKay, The case for Mars terraforming research, Nat. Astron. 9, 634 (2025).
  17. E. S. Kite et al., A research roadmap for assessing the feasibility of warming Mars, arXiv:2604.02242.
  18. J. M. Graham, The biological terraforming of Mars: Planetary ecosynthesis as ecological succession on a global scale, Astrobiology 4, 168 (2004).
  19. M. H. Hecht, Metastability of liquid water on Mars, Icarus 156, 373 (2002).
  20. N. Schorghofer, Mars: Quantitative evaluation of crocus melting behind boulders, Astrophys. J. 890, 49 (2020).
  21. L. Lange and F. Forget, On the possibility of melting water ice during the recent past of Mars: Implications for the formation of gullies, J. Geophys. Res. Planets 131, e2025JE009512 (2026).
  22. , Revised release on the pressure along the melting and sublimation curves of ordinary water substance, IAPWS Release (R14-08(2011)), https://iapws.org/documents/release/MeltSub.
  23. , Habitable atmosphere (OCHMO-TB-003 Rev A), NASA-STD-3001, Technical Brief, 2023, https://www.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/ochmo-tb-003-habitable-atmosphere.pdf.
  24. M. Alexander, Mars transportation environment definition document, Tech. Rep. NASA/TM-2001-210935, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, NTRS Document ID: 20010046858, 2001, https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20010046858.
  25. L. R. Dartnell, L. Desorgher, J. M. Ward, and A. J. Coates, Modelling the surface and subsurface Martian radiation environment: Implications for astrobiology, Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, 2006GL027494 (2007).
  26. J. E. Moores, P. H. Smith, R. Tanner, A. C. Schuerger, and K. J. Venkateswaran, The shielding effect of small-scale martian surface geometry on ultraviolet flux, Icarus 192, 417 (2007).
  27. J. C. Stern et al., Evidence for indigenous nitrogen in sedimentary and aeolian deposits from the Curiosity rover investigations at Gale crater, Mars, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 112, 4245 (2015).
  28. Edited by P. J. Linstrom and W. G. Mallard, NIST Chemistry WebBook, NIST Standard Reference Database Number 69, National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg, MD, Carbon dioxide, https://webbook.nist.gov/cgi/cbook.cgi?ID=124-38-9 (accessed 22 May 2026).
  29. M. F. Gerstell, J. S. Francisco, Y. L. Yung, C. Boxe, and E. T. Aaltonee, Keeping Mars warm with new super greenhouse gases, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 98, 2154 (2001).
  30. M. M. Marinova, C. P. McKay, and H. Hashimoto, Radiative-convective model of warming Mars with artificial greenhouse gases, J. Geophys. Res. 110, 2004JE002306 (2005).
  31. R. M. Ramirez, R. Kopparapu, M. E. Zugger, T. D. Robinson, R. Freedman, and J. F. Kasting, Warming early Mars with CO2 and H2, Nat. Geosci. 7, 59 (2014).
  32. M. Turbet, H. Tran, O. Pirali, F. Forget, C. Boulet, and J.-M. Hartmann, Far infrared measurements of absorptions by CH4+CO2 and H2+CO2 mixtures and implications for greenhouse warming on early Mars, Icarus 321, 189 (2019).
  33. P. J. Godin, R. M. Ramirez, C. L. Campbell, T. Wizenberg, T. G. Nguyen, K. Strong, and J. E. Moores, Collision-induced absorption of CH4–CO2 and H2–CO2 complexes and their effect on the ancient Martian atmosphere, J. Geophys. Res. Planets 125, e2019JE006357 (2020).
  34. C. R. McInnes, Mars climate engineering using orbiting solar reflectors, in Mars: Prospective Energy and Material Resources, edited by V. Badescu (Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 2010), pp. 645–659.
  35. C. J. Handmer, How to terraform Mars for $50B with solar sails, in Tenth International Conference on Mars, LPI Contribution No. 3007 (Lunar and Planetary Institute, Houston, TX, 2024), Abstract No. 3025, p. 3025.
  36. C. Sagan, Planetary engineering on Mars, Icarus 20, 513 (1973).
  37. S. G. Turyshev et al., Science opportunities with solar sailing smallsats, Planet. Space Sci. 235, 105744 (2023).
  38. S. G. Turyshev, Propulsion trades for a 2035–2040 solar gravitational lens mission, arXiv:2602.04198.
  39. W. K. Wilkie, The NASA advanced composite solar sail system (ACS3) flight demonstration a technology pathfinder for practical smallsat solar sailing, in Proceedings of the 35th Annual AIAA/USU Conference on Small Satellites, Logan, UT, 2021 (Utah State University, Logan, UT, 2021), Paper SSC21-II-10, pp. 1–15.
  40. K. Wilkie and J. Fernandez, Advanced composite solar sail system (ACS3) mission update, Presented at the 6th International Symposium on Space Sailing (New York City College of Technology, City University of New York, New York, NY, 2023), presentation slides, pp. 1–26.
  41. L. Johnson et al., Solar photon sails roadmap, Tech. Rep., NASA; roadmap targets include deploy-and-control areas >2.5×103m2 (Generation 2) and >104 m2 (Generation 3a), 2025.
  42. J. H. Kang, K. L. Gordon, R. G. Bryant, O. R. Stohlman, W. K. Wilkie, A. Stark, R. Barfield, B. Sindle, M. Finckenor, and P. Craven, Durability characterization of mechanical interfaces in solar sail membrane structures, Adv. Space Res. 67, 2643 (2021).
  43. M. W. Chase, Jr., NIST-JANAF Thermochemical Tables, 4th ed. (American Chemical Society and American Institute of Physics for the National Institute of Standards and Technology, Washington, DC, 1998), Journal of Physical and Chemical Reference Data, Monograph No. 9.
  44. J. A. Hoffman et al., Mars oxygen ISRU experiment (MOXIE)—Preparing for human Mars exploration, Sci. Adv. 8, eabp8636 (2022).
  45. , NASA's Oxygen-Generating Experiment MOXIE Completes Mars Mission, NASA News (2023), https://www.nasa.gov/missions/mars-2020-perseverance/perseverance-rover/nasas-oxygen-generating-experiment-moxie-completes-mars-mission/.
  46. G. J. Taylor, The bulk composition of Mars, Chem. Erde Geochem. 73, 401 (2013).
  47. J. McSween, Y. Harry, G. J. Taylor, and M. B. Wyatt, Elemental composition of the Martian crust, Science 324, 736 (2009).
  48. B. M. Jakosky et al., Loss of the Martian atmosphere to space: Present-day loss rates determined from MAVEN observations and integrated loss through time, Icarus 315, 146 (2018).
  49. R. Ramstad, S. Barabash, Y. Futaana, H. Nilsson, and M. Holmström, Ion escape from Mars through time: An extrapolation of atmospheric loss based on 10 years of Mars Express measurements, J. Geophys. Res. Planets 123, 3051 (2018).
  50. J. L. Green, J. L. Hollingsworth, D. Brain, V. Airapetian, A. Glocer, A. Pulkkinen, C. Dong, and R. Bamford, A future Mars environment for science and exploration, in Planetary Science Vision 2050 Workshop, LPI Contribution No. 1989 (Lunar and Planetary Institute, Houston, TX, 2017), Abstract No. 8250, pp. 1–2.
  51. D. M. Hunten, The escape of light gases from planetary atmospheres, J. Atmos. Sci. 30, 1481 (1973).
  52. D. C. Catling and J. F. Kasting, Atmospheric Evolution on Inhabited and Lifeless Worlds (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2017).
  53. F. Forget, R. Wordsworth, E. Millour, J.-B. Madeleine, L. Kerber, J. Leconte, E. Marcq, and R. M. Haberle, 3D modelling of the early Martian climate under a denser CO2 atmosphere: Temperatures and CO2 ice clouds, Icarus 222, 81 (2013).
  54. R. L. S. Taylor, The Mars atmosphere problem: Paraterraforming—The Worldhouse solution, J. Br. Interplanet. Soc. 54, 236 (2001).
  55. United Nations Environment Programme and International Resource Panel, Global resources outlook 2024, Tech. Rep. (UNEP/International Resource Panel, Nairobi, Kenya, 2024).
  56. World Steel Association, World steel in figures 2024, Tech. Rep. (World Steel Association, Brussels, Belgium, 2024).
  57. , Statistical review of world energy 2024, Tech. Rep. (Energy Institute, 2024).

Outline

Information

APS Open Sci. 1, 000029– Published 28 May, 2026
Vol. 1
  • Received 27 February 2026
  • Revised 19 April 2026
  • Accepted 18 May 2026
Crossmark - Check for updates button
Creative Commons Logo

Published by the American Physical Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license. Further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the published article's title, journal citation, and DOI.

Published by the American Physical Society

Sign In to Your Journals Account

Filter

Filter

Article Lookup

Enter a citation