- Accepted Paper
Understanding the complexity of frequency and phase angle fluctuations in power grids
PRX Energy - Accepted 23 October, 2026
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1103/w42m-gb7l
PRX Energy - Accepted 23 October, 2026
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1103/w42m-gb7l
Power grids must modernize to meet climate goals while maintaining reliable and stable operating conditions. Yet progress is hindered by a limited understanding of the stochastic processes underlying grid frequency and phase-angle fluctuations, which are induced by the growing penetration of renewable generation, consumer demand fluctuations, and market trading. This issue is particularly acute in Africa, where grids often face weak investment. Here, we present results from a newly collected, large-scale, high-resolution dataset of grid frequency and phase angles for Great Britain and South Africa, comprising close to one billion data points. Using superstatistical modeling, we treat power fluctuations as a slowly varying parameter driving grid dynamics and incorporate nonlinear frequency control. As a result, we derive an analytical model that reproduces multimodal frequency distributions previously obtained from numerical simulations, as well as heavy-tailed fluctuations and double-exponential frequency autocorrelation decays, all in excellent agreement with experimental measurements. Beyond frequency, we also address the so far largely overlooked problem of characterizing spatial phase-angle fluctuations. By comparing our predictions with measurements, we demonstrate that a low-dimensional, two-node grid model accurately fits South African data despite the physical grid’s complexity. We also highlight significant differences between the grids of South Africa and Great Britain. Our results clarify how energy markets and control policies shape grid dynamics across countries with contrasting infrastructure maturity.
If the author has provided any supplemental materials with this article they will be available upon publication of the version of record.